S555: Strategic Intelligence

In war as in business, surprise can be a powerful strategic weapon. This course draws parallels among military, government, and business planning, and explores the role of intelligence and counterintelligence in achieving and preempting surprise. Sherman Kent defined strategic intelligence as the "kind of knowledge a state must possess regarding other states in order to assure itself that its causes will not suffer nor its undertakings fail because its statesmen and soldiers plan and act in ignorance." With one or two word changes, this definition could apply equally well to the world of government or business. In competitive, high-velocity markets, ignorance of other players' actions, or of developments in the wider business environment can prove costly. Ignoring important social movements such as the demand for transparency can damage a companys reputation or a citizens confidence in the government. A governments clear lack of planning for disaster and lack of execution in recovery from that disaster can also damage citizen confidence that government is performing its duties properly.

At the societal level, the chances of achieving, or being subjected to, strategic surprise have increased with the growth of internetworking technologies and the opportunities these afford for various forms of information warfare (IW) and Net terrorism. The more an organization or a society depends on information and communication technologies (ICTs), the greater its vulnerability to asymmetric attack. What applies in the realm of national security also holds for the world of commerce. Computer Network Defense (CND) and Computer Assurance (CA) have thus become a necessary "cost of doing business" for many firms. In practical terms, CND and CA mean identifying mission critical information assets, conducting threat assessments, implementing information systems security, personnel practices, and developing distributed intelligence and counterintelligence capability.

The rise of the network society is accompanied by significant social costs. Recent developments in global terrorism (state-sponsored and otherwise) have exposed the limitations of bureaucratically-structured, highly-centralized intelligence services. As sub-state actors, supranational coalitions, and other groups (e.g., organized crime) create stealth organizations and enthusiastically adopt the principles and methods of network-centric warfare. The intelligence community is being forced to reexamine many of its traditional operating assumptions and governments are questioning the validity of the nation-state concept.

The perspectives offered by this course are broad, ranging from strategic marketing and knowledge management, through competitive intelligence and military intelligence. The total environment is explored; what is visible and what is masked; what is stated and what is understood; what is overt and what is covert. This course introduces various concepts of intelligence and the different contexts where these concepts are applied: the idea of intelligence is not restricted to national security, or corporate competition; it can apply at the level of the individual citizen or the community.

Requirements

Attendance and constructive participation throughout the course are required. If a student misses more than two classes, no final grade will be awarded. Final grades will be based on:

Classroom participation requires a minimum of one contribution per class. All students are expected to contribute to class discussion. Fluency in spoken English is not required. Students who are not fluent in English should speak to the instructor on the first day of class.

Annotated bibliography: Each student will select a topic including: government, business, education, libraries and information centers, society and perform research to collect a bibliography of strategic intelligence on that subject. The annotations will consist of a brief statement of the listing and an evaluation of each. At least 3 pages, but not more than 10.

What is a network?: A paper that may include a visualization of one of the networks described in Networks and Netwars. The paper should describe the possible structures of social networks, spatial, temporal, and social, as well as some of the features of the core nodes that affect persistence. 10 pages, not including bibliography.

Term paper: Each student will select a topic of strategic intelligence and use the ideas discussed in class: disruptive technologies, scenarios, social expectations, disasters, etc. to analyze the topic. Papers must clearly utilize in-class ideas to analyze their topics. 15 pages, not including bibliography. The paper will be presented in class during the last weeks of the term.

Prerequisites

Grade Definitions

The following definitions of letter grades have been defined by student and faculty members of the Curriculum Steering Committee and have been approved by the faculty as an aid in evaluation of academic performance and to assist students by giving them an understanding of the grading standards of the School of Library and Information Science.

A	4.0	Outstanding achievement. Student performance demonstrates full command of the course materials and evinces a high level of originality and/or creativity that far surpasses course expectations.
A-	3.7	Excellent achievement. Student performance demonstrates thorough knowledge of the course materials and exceeds course expectations by completing all requirements in a superior manner.
B+	3.3	Very good work. Student performance demonstrates above-average comprehension of the course materials and exceeds course expectations on all tasks as defined in the course syllabus.
B	3.0	Good work. Student performance meets designated course expectations, demonstrates understanding of the course materials and performs at an acceptable level.
B-	2.7	Marginal work. Student performance demonstrates incomplete understanding of course materials.
C+ C	2.3 2.0	Unsatisfactory work. Student performance demonstrates incomplete and inadequate understanding of course materials.
C- D+ D D-	1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7	Unacceptable work. Coursework performed at this level will not count toward the MLS or MIS degree. For the course to count toward the degree, the student must repeat the course with a passing grade.
F	0.0	Failing. Student may continue in program only with permission of the Dean.

Readings and Course Schedule

Week 1 August 27 What is Strategy? What is Intelligence?
Review of the syllabus. Outline of the course's aims, objectives, and structure. Definitions of strategy. Definitions of intelligence

Week 2 September 3 Disruptive Technologies
Alternative frameworks for understanding business strategy. What are the root causes of missing out on the next big thing.

Recommended Reading: Moore, G. (2005) Dealing with Darwin: How Great Companies Innovate at Every Phase of Their Evolution

Week 3 September 10 Disruptive Social Expectations
Information about organizations can be gathered and disseminated more easily using the Internet. Society expects a new level of transparency from businesses and government.

Recommended Reading: Tapscott and Ticoll (2003) The Naked Corporation: How the Age of Transparency Will Revolutionize Business

Week 4 September 17 Disruptive Social Forms
Terrorist, criminal, and militant networks have been further enabled by new ICTs. How can information be gathered about these networked groups when they appear to be amorphous?

Arquila and Ronfeldt (2001) Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy

Recommended Reading: Arquila, J. & Ronfeldt, D. (1996). The advent of netwar. RAND. Campen, Allen D., Dearth, Douglas H., & Goodden, R. Thomas. (1996) Cyberwar: Security, Strategy and Conflict in the Information Age. Fairfax, VA: AFCEA International Press.

Week 5 September 24 Disruptive Nature
The effects of extreme nature are called disasters, but disasters are as man-made as they are natural. Government policies, or lack of them, can create disasters, so can a governments response, or lack thereof. What intelligence is necessary to ensure disasters do not happen.

Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon, Davis (2004) At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnerabilities, and Disasters pages 3-166 and one of chapters 5-8.

Week 6 October 1 Disruptive Global Change
The most extreme effect of globalization is the burgeoning business of illegal activities.

NaÍm (2005) Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers, and Copycats are Hijacking the Global Economy

Baker, Raymond Capitalisms Achilles Heel: Dirty Money and How to Renew the Free-Market

Recommended viewing: Lord of War [video recording] (2006) Santa Monica, CA: Lions Gate Entertainment.

Pak, Jin. and Kim, Michael. "Implications for Scenario Planning on the question, "Should the US pursue Regime Change in North Korea?"" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, 2005-03-05 http://64.112.226.77/one/isa/isa05/index.php?click_key=4

Horowitz, Shale. and Tan, Alexander. "Identity, Politics, and Strategy in the China-Taiwan Stand-Off: Current and Future Scenarios" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, 2005-03-05 http://64.112.226.77/one/isa/isa05/index.php?click_key=4

Robert Baer (2002) See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIAs War on Terrorism

Week 9 October 22 Competitive Intelligence
Competitive intelligence: functions, structures, roles, techniques, tasks, and products. Analyzing competitors, customers, markets, trends, emergent technologies. Approaches to competitor profiling: corporate footprints and body language. Corporate counterintelligence, economic espionage and business intelligence production models.

Recommended Reading: Fialka, J. J. (1997). War by other means. New York: W.W. Norton. Gilad (2003) Early Warning: Using Competitive Intelligence to Anticipate Market Shifts, Control Risk, and Create Powerful Strategies

Week 10 October 29 Asynchronous Attacks
How others use ICTs to gather covert intelligence about us and how we can protect ourselves.

Recommended Reading: Denning, D.E. (1999). Information warfare and security. New York: Addison Wesley.

Week 11 November 5 Industry Clusters and Government Limitations
What is a cluster? How can governments use intelligence to deter or encourage development?

Porter (1998) Clusters and Competition: New Agendas for Companies, Governments, and Institutions 197-287 in On Competition, edited by Michael Porter.

El Kholy How Egypts Information Policy Affected Development, 99-110 in Intelligence for Economic Development: An Inquiry into the Role of the Knowledge Industry, edited by Dedijer and Jequier.

Week 11 November 12 Case Study of a Failure
How the disaster was missed and what the disaster was. How organizational structure contributed to the mis-steps.

Recommended Reading: U.S. Executive Office of the President (2006) The Federal Response to Hurricane Katrina: Lessons Learned.

U.S. House of Congress, Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina. A Failure of Initiative: The Final Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina.

Week 13 November 26 Reshaping Intelligence
What intelligence is not. Forces shaping what and how information is gathered.

Turner, Stansfield (2005) Burn Before Reading: Presidents, CIA Directors, and Secret Intelligence. New York : Hyperion.

In class scenario, Nuclear Device Exploded in Brussels: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), Strengthening the Global Partnership (2005) Black Dawn Final Report http://www.sgpproject.org/events/Black%20Dawn%20Final%20Report.pdf

Recommended Reading: Gregory F. Treverton (2003) Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information

Required Reading

Arquila, John and David Ronfeldt (2001) Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime and Militancy. Santa Monica: Rand. ISBN 0-8339-3030-2

Christensen, C. M. (2000). The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. New York: Harperbusiness. ISBN 0-06-052199-6

El Kholy How Egypts Information Policy Affected Development, 99-110 in Intelligence for Economic Development: An Inquiry into the role of the Knowledge Industry, edited by Dedijer and Jequier. Oxford: Berg. Class Intranet

Handel, Michael I. (2003) Intelligence and the Problem of Strategic Surprise, 1-58 in Paradoxes of Strategic Intelligence: Essays in Honor of Michael I. Handel edited by Ricahrd K. Betts and Thomas G. Mahnken. London: Frank Cass.

Holzner, Burkart and Leslie Holzner. (2006) Transparency in Global Change: The Vanguard of the Open Society. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press. ISBN 0822958953

Kahaner, L. (1996). Competitive intelligence. New York: Simon & Schuster. ISBN 0684844044

NaÍm , Mois¾s (2005) Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers, and Copycats are Hijacking the Global Economy. New York: Doubleday. ISBN 0-385-51392-5

Porter (1979) How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy Harvard Business Review 57, no. 2 (March-April): 2-57 In EBSCO, Business Source Premier

Porter, M. E. (1998) Clusters and Competition: New Agendas for Companies, Governments, and Institutions 197-287 in On Competition, edited by Michael Porter. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Review. Class Intranet

Turner, Stansfield (2005) Burn Before Reading: Presidents, CIA Directors, and Secret Intelligence. New York : Hyperion. ISBN 0786867825 (also available as an audio book!)

Winkler, Ira (2005) Spies Among Us. Indianapolis, Wiley Publishing. ISBN 0764584685

Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon, Davis (2004) At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnerabilities, and Disasters. London: Routledge. ISBN 0-415-252164